1. If the presidential election were held today, the winner of both the popular vote and Electoral College would be Barack Obama.
The website Real Clear Politics published the results of eight recent national opinion polls on the race for president. Five indicated an Obama victory, there was one tie, and two indicated a victory for Mitt Romney.
The average for all eight polls is:
45.5% Obama
43.8% Romney
10.7% Undecided
The Fox News poll showed Obama with the largest lead, 46% to 39%. His margins in the other polls were 4%, 3%, 3%, and 1%.
Romney led by 3% in one poll and 1% in the other. Both candidates were tied in the Gallup Tracking Poll.
In electoral votes, based on multiple polls in each state, Real Clear Politics reported that Obama would almost certainly win 18 states, plus the District of Columbia, for 227 electoral votes.
Romney would very likely win 21 states with 170 electoral votes.
1. To try to change public opinion, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has signed a $20 million contract with a public relations firm to promote Obamacare.
Over the last 26 months, despite a steady stream of government propaganda supporting Obamacare, Rasmussen Reports polls have shown an amazingly consistent 56% of the American people in favor of repealing it, while 37% want to keep it. 
By late June, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the constitutionality of the law. 54% expect the court to overturn the law.
This newsletter has frequently denounced HERE and HERE and HERE the unrelenting efforts of HHS bureaucrats to persuade voters that the health care law is beneficial.
During the last two years, almost every news release by HHS and the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services has had at least one sentence praising Obamacare. The phrase, "Thanks to the Affordable Care Act (ACA)…" has been interwoven into what seems like hundreds of news releases.
The ACA is the name which HHS uses for Obamacare. The actual title of Public Law 111-148, which was HR 3590 in the previous Congress, is the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
A propaganda mailing was also sent, at taxpayers' expense, to all seniors to try to convince them that Obamacare has many benefits.
Congressman Ron Paul's withdrawal from all upcoming presidential primaries is a recognition that he has essentially achieved the goals of his campaign to influence public opinion on many important issues, while setting the stage for Senator Rand Paul's future efforts.
In a statement to supporters, Paul wrote:
"As I reflect on our 2012 Presidential campaign, I am humbled by the supporters who have worked so hard and sacrificed so much. And I am so proud of what we have accomplished. We will not stop until we have restored what once made America the greatest country in human history.
"This campaign fought hard and won electoral success that the talking heads and pundits never thought possible. But, this campaign is also about more than just the 2012 election. It has been part of a quest I began 40 years ago and that so many have joined. It is about the campaign for Liberty, which has taken a tremendous leap forward in this election and will continue to grow stronger in the future until we finally win.
"Our campaign will continue to work in the state convention process. We will continue to take leadership positions, win delegates, and carry a strong message to the Republican National Convention that Liberty is the way of the future.
"Moving forward, however, we will no longer spend resources campaigning in primaries in states that have not yet voted."
David A. Fahrenthold of the Washington Post noted that, for Paul, "ending his campaigning was the not the same as ending his campaign."
For others, it seemed a distinction without a difference.
1. On May 8, the Inspector General for the Social Security Administration (SSA), Patrick O'Carroll, Jr., testified before a joint meeting of the subcommittees on Social Security and on Oversight of the House Ways and Means Committee regarding ways to improve protection of Social Security numbers (SSN) from misuse, identity theft, and tax fraud.
Carroll cited statistics from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) that 9 million Americans have their identities stolen each year.
He said about 14% of all fraud cases involve misuse of SSNs, especially mortgage fraud, bankruptcy fraud, document fraud, and benefit fraud.
"The expanded use of the SSN in today's society has made it a valuable commodity for criminals. In addition to being a lynchpin for identity theft crimes, it also helps an individual assimilate into our society, and in some instances, to avoid detection," Carroll told the subcommittees.
He emphasized that, while the SSA has controls in place to protect SSNs and other personal data, "individuals must also take basic preventive steps to protect their own information from improper use."
1. North Carolina's Amendment #1, to define marriage as between one man and one woman and to ban any other type of domestic partnerships, passed overwhelmingly.
Ballotpedia lists the final results:
1,303,952 (61.05%) YES
831,788 (38.95%) NO
The National Journal said the proposal received strong support from African-Americans. In one heavily black county, for example, Amendment #1 received over 70% of the vote.
This was the same pattern as in California in November 2008, where a majority of whites voted against the Marriage Amendment to the state constitution, but the proposal passed because of the heavy support it received from blacks who were turning out in large numbers to vote for Obama.
A new way to save Medicare from certain doom has been unveiled by Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Senator Ron 
Wyden (D-OR) that would give seniors more choices and create competition from health insurance companies.
Last week's issue of this newsletter stated that the Annual Report of the Medicare Trustees found the program faces serious short-range and long-range actuarial problems--and the problems are actually more acute than stated.
The issue before that reported the Trustees determined Social Security has "worsened significantly" in the last year and cannot be sustained without changes.
Accordingly, many members of Congress are urging "entitlement reform," which is a euphemism for cutting benefits. Rather than cutting benefits, there are much better alternatives.
The eligibility age for both Medicare and Social Security should be increased to 70, with special provisions for earlier retirement and medical benefits if required by health problems.
Today, most persons 65 to 70 years of age are in excellent physical and mental health and are able to work productively longer than seniors in previous decades.
14 more states, with 770 delegates, have yet to vote in the Republican presidential nomination contest.
The next contests will be on Tuesday, May 8, in Indiana (46 delegates), North Carolina (55 delegates), and West Virginia (31 delegates).
Congressman Ron Paul may do well in in Kentucky, where his son is a senator, on May 22 (45 delegates), and in his own home state of Texas on May 29 (155 delegates).
As indicated in last week's issue of this newsletter, it was inappropriate and counterproductive for Reince Priebus, Chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC), to merge their operations with Mitt Romney, who does not yet have enough delegates to be nominated.
In order to beat President Obama, Romney will need the strong support of Paul and his devoted followers. If a substantial number of Paul supporters vote for a third party candidate in November, rather than vote for Romney, that will likely tip the electoral votes of several states to Obama.
by Art Kelly | 5/1/2012
The Annual Report of the Medicare Trustees states that the program faces serious short-range and long-range actuarial problems--and the problems are actually worse than stated.
Last week's issue of this newsletter reported that the Trustees determined that Social Security has "worsened significantly" in the last year and cannot be sustained without changes.
by Art Kelly | 4/26/2012
On a short-term basis, the Report states:
Social Security's expenditures exceeded non-interest income in 2010 and 2011, the first such occurrences since 1983, and the Trustees estimate that these expenditures will remain greater than non-interest income throughout the 75-year projection period.
The deficit of non-interest income relative to expenditures was about $49 billion in 2010 and $45 billion in 2011, and the Trustees project that it will average about $66 billion between 2012 and 2018…
What that means is that Social Security payroll taxes are no longer raising enough money to pay full benefits and will remain that way permanently.
The Report also notes:
A temporary reduction in the Social Security payroll tax rate reduced payroll tax revenues by $103 billion in 2011 and by a projected $112 billion in 2012.
The legislation establishing the payroll tax reduction also provided for transfers of revenues from the general fund to the trust funds in order to "replicate to the extent possible" payments that would have occurred if the payroll tax reduction had not been enacted.
That means that the payroll tax deals in 2011 and 2012 will deprive Social Security a total of $215 billion in money to pay benefits. Congress made up this shortfall by increasing the national debt by $215 billion.
by Art Kelly
Last week's issue of this newsletter said Romney was not yet assured of the GOP nomination. That was true then--and now--provided at least one other candidate did fairly well in the remaining states that have not held primaries or concluded their multi-state caucuses.
It doesn't look like that will happen.
Newt Gingrich's "last stand" was in Delaware, a small state where he could concentrate his limited resources. Hoping to win or come close, Gingrich garnered 27.1% of the vote to Romney's 56.5%. Ron Paul received 10.6% and Rick Santorum, who had suspended his campaign, still got 5.9%, according to vote tabulations by the New York Times.
Santorum had enough residual support in his home state of Pennsylvania to come in second there with 18.3% to Romney's 58.0%. Paul had 13.2% and Gingrich 10.5%.
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