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Is This Recession the Worst One Yet?
Is this recession the worst one since the Great Depression? It's a good question, with lots of implications for policy. In today's politics, where leaders have to sell policy projects on fear instead of merit, it's hard to separate real concern from the fear mongering. University of Michigan Economist Dr. Mark J. Perry has addressed this topic a few times on his blog Carpe Diem (http://mjperry.blogspot.com/). Below are four entries that relate to the recession and how it ranks among all the others:
• Beware of the False Claims About Jobless Claims (http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/01/beware-of-false-claims-about-jobless...): "Bottom Line: Adjusted for the size of the labor force, we're still nowhere close to a record for continued unemployment claims. But that reality won't stop the media from reporting 'record jobless claims,' there are already dozens of new stories with that 'false claim' about 'record claims.'"
• What Does Annual Real GDP Growth Tell Us? (http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/02/what-does-annual-real-gdp-growth-tel...): "Much of the discussion about the 'worst economy since the Great Depression' assumes that we are already close to the economic conditions of the 1930s. The chart below of annual real GDP growth from 1970-2008 shows that the economic conditions of 2008 (measured by real GDP growth) aren't even as bad yet as the 2001 recession, when real GDP grew at .80% for the year."
• Clear to Everyone? Better Tell The Data (http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/02/clear-to-everyone-better-tell-data.html): "The chart above shows annual real GDP growth during the Great Depression I (1930-1932) and the 2007-2009 period, using the WSJ consensus forecast of -.30% for 2009 growth."
• Obama's Fearmongering: Bad History, Bad Economics; Historically Inaccurate and Dangerous (http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/02/president-barack-obama-has-turned.html): "President Barack Obama has turned fearmongering into an art form. This fearmongering may be good politics, but it is bad history and bad economics. It is bad history because our current economic woes don't come close to those of the 1930s. Mr. Obama's analogies to the Great Depression are not only historically inaccurate, they're also dangerous."
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Andrew is an editor of 60SecondActivist.
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