Issue #102

by Art Kelly

1. Michael Barone, senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner and highly respected editor of the Almanac of American Politics, writes that “House Democrats are headed toward historic loses” in the 2010 elections. But the Gallup Poll still shows Democrats ahead in races for Congress.

In 1994, Barone wrote an article for U.S. News and World Report indicating the GOP had “a serious chance” to win control of the House. His was the first piece in the mainstream media that pointed to the Republican sweep in the elections that year.

Barone now says “Democrats will take a thumping this year too.” But he does hedge a little, pointing out that “Democratic candidates do have a money advantage in many close races.”

And the latest Gallup Poll shows Democrats leading congressional races, 48% to 44% and 8% undecided.

However, 46% of Republicans were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the November elections, while only 28% of Democrats felt that way. But a strong Democratic turnout machine could still get lukewarm Democrats to the polls. And Barone notes, “The widely held assumption that Republicans will turn out in greater number than Democrats could prove wrong.”

By contrast, the latest Rasmussen Reports show a strong lead for the GOP in congressional races. The poll says 46% of the people plan to vote Republican, 36% Democratic, and 18% are undecided.

These results are very similar to the previous set of Gallup and Rasmussen polls that were reported in this newsletter last week.

Real Clear Politics lists the results from nine national polls, including Gallup and Rasmussen. Six of the polls showed a GOP lead for Congress, two showed a Democratic lead, and one poll had the race tied. The average of all nine was 44.7% Republican, 41.6% Democratic, and 13.9% undecided.

2. State Rasmussen polls:

Nevada Senate
Sen. Harry Reid (D) 45%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%
Other candidates 7%
Undecided 4%

Illinois Senate
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 43%
Mark Kirk (R) 41%
Other candidates 6%
Undecided 10%

Alabama Senate
Sen. Richard Shelby (R) 59%
William Barnes (D) 29%
Other candidates 6%
Undecided 6%

Alabama Governor
Robert Bentley (R) 55%
Ron Sparks (D) 35%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 7%

Oregon Governor
Chris Dudley (R) 47%
John Kitzhaber (D) 44%
Other candidates 5%
Undecided 4%

Colorado Senate
Jane Norton (R) 48%
Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 39%
Other candidates 7%
Undecided 6%

Massachusetts Governor
Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 38%
Charlie Baker (R) 32%
Tom Cahill (D) 17%
Undecided 12%

North Dakota Senate
John Hoeven (R) 69%
Tracy Potter (D) 22%
Other candidates 2%
Undecided 7%

North Dakota House at Large
Rick Berg (R) 49%
Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 46%
Other candidates 1%
Undecided 5%

West Virginia Senate
Joe Manchin (D) 51%
John Raese (R) 35%
Other candidates 5%
Undecided 9%

Arizona Governor
Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 56%
Terry Goddard (D) 37%
Other candidates 2%
Undecided 5%

Rhode Island Governor
Lincoln Chafee (I) 37%
Frank Caprio (D) 30%
John Robitaille (R) 23%
Other candidates 2%
Undecided 8%

Florida Senate
Marco Rubio (R) 35%
Charlie Crist (I) 33%
Kendrick Meek (D) 20%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 8%

Arkansas Governor
Gov. Mike Beebe (D) 50%
Jim Keet (R) 40%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 7%

New York Governor
Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%
Carl Paladino (R) 29%
Other candidates 5%
Undecided 8%

In these 15 races, Republicans lead in 8, Democrats in 6, and an independent in 1.

What’s Happening with Seniors Issues:

• Medicare turns 45 and Social Security will soon turn 75; both programs are in trouble
• 58% of the people want to repeal Obamacare
• A new chart shows the 159 new government agencies under Obamacare

What’s Happening with Christian Values:

• Newt Gingrich writes a complelling article against proposed mosque on Ground Zero
• Powerful video by Center for Security Policy says Islamists want symbol of 9-11 victory
• St. Louis Archbishop says someone cannot be pro-abortion and a good Catholic