The largest group of homosexuals in California has decided to wait until 2012 to try to repeal the state constitutional amendment that protects marriage.

The leaders of Equality California, the group that spearheaded the opposition to Proposition 8 in the 2008 election, have concluded that attempting an initiative and referendum campaign in 2010 would be futile.

The Los Angeles Times reported that most, but not all, homosexual leaders in the state believe they will have a better chance to prevail during a presidential election year.

Marc Solomon, Equality California's marriage director, said, "If we thought November 2010 was the best time to go, the time when we thought we could win back the freedom to marry, we would go . . . But we don't."

The organization estimated it would need at least $30 million, and possibly as much as $50 million, to prevail.  Most of the top donors to last year's No-on-8 campaign have indicated a reluctance to undertake a huge effort as soon as 2010.

A smaller homosexual organization, the Courage Campaign, was not willing to wait until 2012 and said that it had raised $136,000 towards a 2010 campaign.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the differences in strategy within the homosexual community. 

Matt Foreman, formerly the executive director of National Gay and Lesbian Task Force and currently the director of the Evelyn and Walter Haas, Jr. Fund's gay and lesbian program, lamented, "The situation with these opposing factions is one of the most distressing things I've seen in my 25 years working in the gay movement."  

The San Jose Mercury News indicated that extensive polling by Equality California indicated that same-sex marriage would have a better chance to prevail in 2012 than in 2010.

Like many others, the homosexual community has been hurt badly by the recession.

Paul Wysocki, executive director for the Billy DeFrank Center, the largest homosexual community center in Silicon Valley, said that severe budget cuts by local governments have reduced grants to his center.  To make up for that loss, while trying to conduct an expensive statewide campaign, would have been difficult.

"We really need a lot of help," Wysocki said, referring to the group's non-political assistance to the homosexual community.  "To throw in a political campaign right now would sure make it tough for us."

The Sacramento Bee found that liberal political professionals agreed that 2010 was impractical.

Gale Kaufman, the most prominent Democratic expert on referendum campaigns, asked, "Why are we even talking about 2010?  What has changed in the hearts and minds of a significant number of Californians?"

Ron Buckmire, a mathematics professor at Occidental College, quipped, "As I like to say: Do the math.  It's going to take a long time.  I haven't seen a plan to win yet.  I've seen a plan to get on the ballot.  But not to win."

Ron Prentice, the chairman of ProtectMarriage.com, which led the successful campaign for Proposition 8, told the Wall Street Journal that he wasn't surprised by the development. "The polling on gay marriage will continue to show that more and more people in California oppose granting marriage to same-sex couples," he said.