by Art Kelly

1.  The outcome of the Florida Primary on January 31 cannot be predicted, as the winner is very likely to be determined by the CNN debate at 8 PM Eastern on Thursday, January 26.

During two separate periods in the campaign, Newt Gingrich had fallen to the bottom of the polls, only to come back to the top through impressive presentations in nationally televised debates with the other candidates.

But at other times, Gingrich has fallen fast when he did not do well in the debates.

For instance, in a debate just before the New Hampshire Primary, a previous issue of this newsletter recounted how Gingrich was hurt by a dramatic confrontation with Ron Paul regarding military service.

The result was a strong second place showing for Paul in the primary and a near-last place finish for Gingrich.

But in debates before the South Carolina Primary, a different issue of this newsletter reported on Gingrich's extremely powerful performances, which produced unprecedented standing ovations from the audiences.

As result, Gingrich won a big victory in South Carolina.  Wikipedia reported the results:

243,323 (40.4%) Newt Gingrich
167,417 (27.8%) Mitt Romney
102,113 (17.0%) Rick Santorum
  78,036 (13.0%) Ron Paul
    6,329 (  1.1%) Herman Cain
    2,491 (  0.4%) Rick Perry
    1,161 (  0.2%) Jon Huntsman
       494 (  0.1%) Michele Bachmann
       213 (  0.0%) Gary Johnson

This victory immediately propelled Gingrich into the lead in Florida. 

Rasmussen Reports had Gingrich at 41% to 32% for Romney.  Inside Advantage had Gingrich 34.4% to 25.6% for Romney.  And Public Policy Polling had Gingrich at 38% to 33% for Romney.

But for unknown reasons, in the January 23 debate on NBC, moderated by Brian Williams, Gingrich ceased to be strong and dynamic.  Instead, he came across as too laid back, almost as if he had taken a tranquilizer before the debate.

Perhaps a political consultant told him he should soften his image.  If so, that was bad advice, as exit polls found that Republican primary voters are looking for a candidate who can go "toe-to-toe" with President Obama in the general election.

Jeffrey Rendall notes in ConservativeHQ.com that, by contrast to Gingrich, Romney "went on the attack" and was "noticeably more aggressive," even appearing mean at times.

"What happened to Mr. Nice Guy Mitt?", Rendall wondered.

Even so, Romney came out ahead in that debate.  As a result, Gingrich noticeably declined in the polls and Romney moved back in front in Florida.

The CNN/Time poll had Romney 36%, Gingrich 34%, Santorum 11%, and Paul 9%.

The new Inside Advantage poll had Romney 40.3%, Gingrich 32.3%, Paul 9.0%, and Santorum 8.1%.

With another debate scheduled on CNN at 8 PM Eastern on Thursday, January 26, the outcome of the Florida Primary on Tuesday, January 31, is unpredictable.  If Gingrich does well, he should win.  If he does poorly, Romney will likely be the winner.

Other than participating in the debates, Paul is not competing in Florida.  The congressman is saving his campaign funds for several upcoming caucus states, where he has strong organizations that can turn out his supporters that may win him a significant number of delegates to the Republican National Convention.

Santorum was recently endorsed by 34 prominent conservative leaders, including James Dobson, Gary Bauer, Joseph Farah, Foster Friess, and Elaine Donnelly.

However, The Hill reports, "Rick Santorum could pull out of Florida before its Tuesday primary, exiting a state where he's failed to gain momentum in order to focus on other upcoming contests."

Like Paul, Santorum may be able to marshal his supporters in the caucus states.  Real Clear Politics marveled at Santorum's "fervent supporters," who could impact some contests.

2.  President Obama's State of the Union Address should have made it clear that, if Republicans hope to be successful against him in the general election, they must nominate a superb communicator.

Conservatives and Tea Party supporters should "give the devil his due" in acknowledging Obama's immense oratorical skills.

Not only was the President's speech delivered effectively, his skillful use of words conveyed a moderate, even a quasi-conservative, image that disguised the far-left agenda of the Obama Administration during the last three years.
 
It will certainly be difficult to beat Barack Obama in the November 6 election.  But it can be done with an intensive effort by a coalition of many concerned citizens.

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