What’s Happening with Conservatives and the Tea Party

by Art Kelly

Four out of six of the most recent polls point to a narrow Mitt Romney win over Ron Paul in Iowa, but 41% of likely caucus goers say they could change their mind, while a larger than expected participation could influence results of the Republican caucus.

The latest Des Moines Register poll, released Saturday night, was conducted December 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%:

24% Mitt Romney
22% Ron Paul
15% Rick Santorum
12% Newt Gingrich
11% Rick Perry
  7% Michele Bachmann

It is striking that three other polls have very close to identical results.

The Rasmussen Reports poll was conducted on December 28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%:

23% Romney
22% Paul
16% Santorum
13% Perry
13% Gingrich
  5% Bachmann

The NBC News/Marist Poll was conducted December 27-28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3%:

23% Romney
21% Paul
15% Santorum
14% Perry
13% Gingrich
  6% Bachmann

The CNN/Time poll was conducted December 21-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%:

25% Romney
22% Paul
16% Santorum
14% Gingrich
11% Perry
  9% Bachmann

The Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research Poll was conducted on December 28 (the margin of error was not listed) and shows a three-way tie:

17% Romney
17% Paul
17% Gingrich
13% Santorum
12% Bachmann

The Public Policy Polling survey was conducted December 26-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1%.  It shows Paul in the lead:

24% Paul
20% Romney
13% Gingrich
11% Bachmann
10% Perry
10% Santorum

The Real Clear Politics website averaged all of the polls and found Romney had a razor-thin margin of seven-tenths of 1% over Paul.

Paul could still win, even decisively, if his supporters turn out in greater numbers than the supporters of Romney and the other candidates.  The last issue of this newsletter quoted Dave Peterson, an official with the Iowa State University Poll, who said:

"Paul probably under-polls. His supporters are younger and more likely to reply on a cell phone, so he's probably going to perform better than his polling suggests. His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds. Paul attracted support across the ideological spectrum from those who identify themselves as extremely conservative to extremely liberal."

Paul West of the Los Angeles Times reports that Paul may benefit from a large participation of Democrats and independents in the GOP caucuses.  Although the rules limit participation to registered Republicans, anyone can register to vote or change party affiliation at the caucuses themselves.

It was such a massive influx of Democrats and independents into the 1976 Texas Republican presidential primary that gave Ronald Reagan a landslide victory over President Gerald Ford.  Had the participation been limited to Republicans on that occasion, Ford, who had the backing of Senator John Tower and the state GOP establishment, would have easily prevailed.  If that had happened, Reagan probably would have dropped out of the race and not run again in 1980.

However, Paul may sense that Romney will win in Iowa.  Beth Fouhy of the Associated Press reports that, strangely, Paul left Iowa to return to Texas. He is expected to be back in the Hawkelye State Monday morning, but all the other candidates had grueling weekend schedules of campaign events.  It could be the 76-year old candidate just needed a few days of rest before completing the Iowa campaign and moving promptly on to New Hampshire.

It is also possible Santorum might pull an upset and win in Iowa.  Even coming in second place, or a strong third, would give his campaign a much-needed boost to continue in New Hampshire and beyond.

Erin McPike in Real Clear Politics writes:

"With four days left until the Iowa caucuses, Rick Santorum finally has become the flavor of the month in the volatile Republican presidential race here…Finally, Santorum has gotten his moment in the spotlight--and it's at just the right time. There's no telling now who will win the caucuses on Tuesday night."

The Des Moines Register Poll was conducted over four days. But in looking at the results only from the last two days, Santorum did much better than he did in the first two days of the survey.  However, the sample size was so small, the margin of error was plus or minus 5.6%:

24% Romney
21% Santorum
18% Paul

J. Ann Selzer, who supervised the poll for the Register, said, "Momentum's name is Rick Santorum."

Rebecca Kaplan of CBS News writes that, in the closing days of the campaign, Rick Perry has had large, enthusiastic crowds throughout the state that may translate into votes:

"Rick Perry's events have taken a turn for the crowded. He'll arrive, typically, to find that a coffee shop built to accommodate 75 people is crammed with up to twice that many, spilling out the door and jammed into every available corner.  The crowds are excited, too…breaking into loud applause when he calls for a balanced budget amendment, a part-time Congress, and the end of Obamacare."

By contrast, Jason Noble of the Des Moines Register reports that Bachmann seems headed for a last place finish:

"Evidence mounted Friday of flagging momentum and organizational deterioration in Michele Bachmann's all-or-nothing run at the Iowa caucuses.  The Minnesota congresswoman rolled her tour bus through Sioux City, Early, and Fort Dodge, but drew small-to-nonexistent crowds at each stop."

This is an ironic development in light of Bachmann's first place finish in the Iowa Straw Poll last August.

While Newt Gingrich appears to be fading in Iowa, Erin McPike of Real Clear Politics states that the former Speaker of the House "already is looking to shift his campaign into South Carolina and Florida."

And, for the moment, Gingrich still looks like the frontrunner nationally.  Real Clear Politics averaged five prominent polls and found Gingrich had a small lead over Romney:

27.4% Gingrich
25.2% Romney
12.2% Paul
  6.4% Perry
  6.2% Bachmann
  4.0% Santorum
  2.0% Jon Huntsman

While Romney may win in Iowa and New Hampshire, he faces major obstacles to securing the Republican nomination.  ABC News' Matt Negrin writes, "It is clear the Tea Party has two opponents in this presidential election:  President Obama and Mitt Romney."

Judson Phillips, the founder of Tea Party Nation (TPN), said, "There is a huge anti-Romney sentiment." Phillips stated that surveys of the members of TPN showed that as many as half of them say they would not vote for Romney in a general election.

The next regular issue of What's Happening with Conservatives and the Tea Party will be published online on Thursday, January 5, 2012.

The next issue of What's Happening with Seniors Benefits, which will report on developments on the payroll tax, which funds Social Security, will also be published on Thursday, January 5.

Previous issues of both newsletters 

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