What’s Happening with Conservatives and the Tea Party

by Art Kelly

1.  The latest Rasmussen Reports polls shows Mitt Romney ahead in Iowa, but three other new polls show Ron Paul in the lead.

The Rasmussen poll, which was conducted on December 19 through the use of 750 automated phone calls of persons who indicated they are likely to attend the caucus. The results were:

25% Mitt Romney
20% Ron Paul
17% Newt Gingrich
10% Rick Perry
10% Rick Santorum
  6% Michele Bachmann
  4% Jon Huntsman
  1% Others
  8% Undecided

"Among those who say they are certain to participate in the caucus, Romney and Paul are essentially even. As always in a caucus, the organizational effort to get identified supporters to show up on January 3 is likely to determine the outcome. Additionally, only 46% of Iowa caucus goers are certain of their vote and say they won't change their mind in the next two weeks," Rasmussen Reports explained.

The Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG Poll, which was conducted between December 8 and 18 through actual telephone interviews of 940 persons, of which 333 said they would attend the caucuses.  The results were:

27.5% Paul
25.3% Gingrich
17.5% Romney
11.2% Perry
  7.4% Bachmann
  4.9% Santorum
  0.3% Huntsman
  0.4% Others
  5.4% Undecided

"The Tea Party is expected to have an influence on the caucuses for the first time," the Iowa State University poll noted.  Gingrich was the strong choice of Tea Partiers, while Paul received the most support from non-Tea Party members.

Here are the results of the Tea Party members:

42.4% Gingrich
12.1% Perry
12.1% Romney
10.6% Bachmann
  9.1% Paul
  9.1% Santorum
  0.0% Huntsman
  4.5% Undecided

Here are the results for the non-Tea Party members:

29.1% Paul
22.3% Gingrich
19.3% Romney
11.5% Perry
  6.8% Bachmann
  4.4% Santorum
  0.3% Huntsman
  0.3% Other
  6.0% Undecided or refused to answer

Dave Peterson, interim director of the Harkin Institute of Public Policy at Iowa State and associate professor of political science who assisted with the poll, said, "I think Paul probably under-polls. His supporters are younger and more likely to reply on a cell phone, so he's probably going to perform better than his polling suggests. His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds."

The poll also noted, "Paul attracted support across the ideological spectrum from those who identify themselves as extremely conservative to extremely liberal."

Public Policy Polling used automated calls to 597 likely Republican caucus voters from December 16 to 18.  The results were:

23% Paul
20% Romney
14% Gingrich
10% Perry
10% Bachmann
10% Santorum
  4% Huntsman
  2% Gary Johnson
  7% Others or undecided

The Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research survey of 391 likely caucus-goers was conducted December 18, 2011, using automated calls.  The results were:

23.9% Paul
18.2% Romney
15.5% Perry
12.9% Gingrich
10.1% Bachmann
  3.8% Huntsman
  2.9% Santorum
  0.8% Others
11.9% Undecided

With Paul the apparent frontrunner in Iowa, Dick Morris predicted, "Look for the other candidates to ease up on Newt and go after Paul, the target-du-jour."

Bachmann's weak performance in these polls could be related to her performance in the last debate.  She may have appeared to many as abrasive and even mean.

Jeffery Rendall's comprehensive review of the debate is posted on the ConservativeHQ.com website.

2.  Michele Bachmann crushed Newt Gingrich in the latest CHQ Presidential Straw Poll

Michele Bachmann may not be doing well in Iowa, but the conservatives and Tea Partiers taking part in ConservativeHQ.com's weekly straw poll seem to like her style. Bachmann bumped Newt Gingrich from second place in the poll, with Ron Paul still taking the top spot.

The news wasn't all good for the Texas congressman, however. "Paul also saw a drop in the polls for a second week in a row, sitting at 46 percent -- his lowest in a month," said CHQ's Andrew Davis.

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