Issue #98

1. Three new Gallup polls show conservatives outnumber liberals by more than a 2 to 1 margin; Republicans think the government is doing much, while Democrats want it to do more; and low approval ratings of Congress suggest a GOP sweep is coming in the 2010 elections.

The latest survey finds that only 20% of voters approve of the job Congress is doing. While this is a slight improvement from the all-time low of 16% for a midterm election year, Gallup says the low ratings "are a potentially ominous sign for President Obama and the Democratic majority in Congress."

Gallup notes that historically, whenever the approval rating for Congress has been below 40%, the president’s party loses an average of 29 seats in the House.

Republicans need to gain 39 seats in the House and 11 in the Senate to take control of Congress. Right now, 2010 looks very similar to 1994. That year, the approval rating for Congress 23% and the GOP picked up 53 House seats.

Together with polls showing disapproval of President Obama’s performance in office, Gallup says these findings suggest "Democrats could expect to lose a significant number of U.S. House seats on Election Day."

Another Gallup Poll found there are genuine philosophical differences between grassroots Republicans and Democrats on the role of government.

81% of Republicans believe government is doing too much, but only 29% of Democrats think the government is too big and 63% of Democrats would like it to do even more. Independents line up 58% to 32% along conservative lines regarding the scope of government.

Overall, 53% of the public says government is doing too much, 39% too little, and 8% had mixed views or no opinion.

When asked to describe their political philosophy in a third poll from Gallup, 42% of voters say they are conservatives, while only 20% call themselves as liberals. (Interestingly, this is exactly the same percentage that approves of Congress.) 35% of the people label themselves as moderates.

Among Republicans, 72% consider themselves conservatives versus 24% moderates and a scant 3% liberals.

Among Democrats, 39% consider themselves liberals versus 37% moderates. A higher than expected 23% say they are conservatives.

Among independents, 41% opt to call themselves moderates, 36% conservatives, and only 19% liberals.

2. Results of new state polls from Rasmussen Reports:

Kentucky Senate
Rand Paul (R) 49%
Jack Conway (D) 42%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 6%

Missouri Senate
Roy Blunt (R) 48%
Robin Carnahan (D) 43%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 6%

Hawaii Senate
Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) 68%
John Roco (R) 20%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 8%

Hawaii Governor
Neil Abercrombie (D) 58%
Duke Aiona (R) 32%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 6%

New York Governor
Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%
Rick Lazio (R) 28%
Other candidates 4%
Undecided 13%

Louisiana Senate
Sen. David Vitter (R) 53%
Charlie Melancon (D) 35%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 9%

Utah Senate
Mike Lee (R) 58%
Sam Granato (D) 28%
Other candidates 5%
Undecided 9%

Utah Governor
Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 58%
Peter Corroon (D) 31%
Other candidates 2%
Undecided 8%

South Carolina Governor
Nikki Haley (R) 52%
Vincent Sheheen (D) 40%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 5%

Nevada Governor
Brian Sandoval (R) 55%
Rory Reid (D) 33%
Other candidates 8%
Undecided 4%

Nevada Senate
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Sen. Harry Reid (D) 41%
Other candidates 8%
Undecided 2%

Washington Senate
Sen. Patty Murray (D) 47%
Dino Rossi (R) 47%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 3%

Vermont Senate
Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) 64%
Len Britton (R) 29%
Other candidates 3%
Undecided 4%

Vermont Governor
Brian Dubie (R) 47%
Deb Markowitz (D) 40%
Other candidates 6%
Undecided 8%

North Carolina Senate
Sen. Richard Burr (R) 44%
Elaine Marshall (D) 43%
Other candidates 7%
Undecided 6%

Wisconsin Governor
Mark Neumann (R) 47%
Tom Barrett (D) 39%
Other candidates 7%
Undecided 7%

Massachusetts Governor
Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 41%
Charlie Baker (R) 34%
Tim Cahill (I) 16%
Undecided 9%

In these 17 races, Republicans lead in 11, Democrats lead in 5, and there is 1 tie.